A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
