Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."

• Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.